Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
